Observations

Readings on capital in our region.

Each reading answers one question about capital in our region, with a single measure.

009September 25, 2026

How much do we invest in our own community through public debt?

One understated way local capital is invested here is through municipal debt, which is ultimately repaid by taxpayers. Since 2020, local governments across St. Joseph, Elkhart, and Marshall counties have added about $723 million in debt to reinvest in the community through infrastructure, economic development, schools, and amenities like parks and libraries. Each dollar now costs more to carry: the average interest rate on this debt rose from about 3.2% to 4%. But even though taxes feel indirect at times, it’s one of the most direct ways local capital is invested in our community, shared by a large swath of residents, businesses, and organizations: property taxpayers back 45% of it, utility ratepayers 28%, taxpayers in TIF districts 22%, and local income taxpayers 5%.

Local public debt rose from $1.28 billion in 2020 to $2.00 billion in 2025, and yearly interest from $40 million to $79 million: $24 million of the increase from more borrowing and $16 million from higher rates.What the extra $723 million was borrowed for: water, sewer and electric $250 million; development and TIF deals $248 million; schools $219 million; courts, parks, libraries and other government $6 million.Who repays the $2.0 billion: property taxpayers 45%, utility ratepayers 28%, property taxpayers in TIF districts 22%, local income taxpayers 5%.
Method. Indiana Gateway annual financial reports for every local government in St. Joseph, Elkhart, and Marshall counties — counties, cities, towns, townships, school corporations, libraries, special districts, and redevelopment authorities — for 2020 and 2025. Debt is principal outstanding at year end. School building corporation bonds, which the state records as leases, are estimated from remaining lease payments. Interest is interest actually paid each year; the average rate is interest paid divided by average debt, across all issues including low-rate state loans. “Growth” means debt issued for economic development; everything else is service and upkeep. Repayment source is the revenue pledged to each issue.
008September 15, 2026

What happens to our industrial property value when one large owner arrives?

Describing property by dollars, not just count, is illustrative — because value grows over time, and its distribution shifts too. For the last five years the value of industrial property in St. Joseph County was relatively stable in how it was distributed. With the new Amazon data center in New Carlisle, both the total value and its distribution changed drastically and quickly: Amazon bought eight parcels of former farmland valued around $2 million and turned them into a single campus now valued near $143 million — a stake roughly equal to the county’s top five local owners combined.

St. Joseph County industrial property value 2020-2025, stacked by owner location, with Amazon's 2025 block appearing.The five largest non-local owners hold about 20% of county industrial value versus 13% for the five largest local owners; Amazon alone is 12.7%.
Method. Indiana Gateway real-property parcel files, 2020 through 2025, St. Joseph County industrial parcels (class 300–399). “Local” means the owner’s mailing ZIP is within the three-county region; value is total assessed value. The 2025 owner is Razor5 LLC, the entity behind Amazon’s publicly announced campus, registered in Delaware; for the largest owners we grouped by parent company. A mailing address shows where the tax bill goes, not who ultimately owns a property.
007September 9, 2026

Who owns our commercial and industrial property, and who owns its value?

Locals own most of the commercial and industrial properties in St. Joseph, Elkhart, and Marshall counties — but a minority of the value. In St. Joseph commercial, locals hold 73% of the properties and 45% of the value, and the gap opens in every county and property type.

Method. Indiana Gateway real-property parcel files, 2025 assessment, for St. Joseph, Elkhart, and Marshall counties. Commercial = class 400–499, industrial = 300–399; “local” means the owner’s mailing ZIP is within the three counties, and value is total assessed value. Marshall industrial is shown by count only.
006September 3, 2026

Who owns the houses?

Of every 100 single-family houses in St. Joseph, Elkhart, and Marshall counties, 82 are the owner’s home, 14 belong to someone nearby, 2 to an owner elsewhere in Indiana or Michigan, and 2 out of state. For now, these houses mostly belong to the people who live here.

Method. County Auditor and Assessor parcel files, 2024 assessment, via Indiana DLGF Gateway; single-family parcels (class 510–515). Owner location is the mailing address, so the local share is a ceiling.
005September 1, 2026

How attractive are our homes to investors?

The cities in our region screen at about an 8.4% gross rental yield, well above the roughly 5% national norm. The affordability that makes them a good place to live is the same thing that draws distant capital to buy the homes.

Method. Gross rental yield is annual median gross rent divided by median owner-occupied home value, from the Census American Community Survey, 2020–2024, for the region’s cities, population-weighted.
004August 27, 2026

How much financing would it take to solve our succession problem?

About $1.2 billion in business value changes hands in the region each year. Bank debt and seller notes cover most of it; roughly $290 million has to be buyer equity — the part in short supply.

Method. Each business valued at a typical EBITDA-based enterprise value by size and sector, financed by a capital stack scaled to the deal, with buyer equity as the residual; summed and spread over a 15-year window. Illustrative, not a forecast.
003August 25, 2026

How many small business buyers do we need for our succession problem?

Roughly 320 businesses a year need a new owner across the five counties just to keep pace with retirements — on the order of hundreds of prepared, financed buyers, every year.

Method. Business counts (5–250 employees) from Census County Business Patterns; the 55-or-older ownership share from the Census Annual Business Survey; a 15-year transition window.
002August 20, 2026

Do our deposits matter to the big banks?

To the national banks that hold a growing share of our deposits, this region is about 18¢ of every $100 — one market among hundreds, and a shrinking one. In 1994 about one of every $500 on deposit in U.S. banks was here; today, about one of every $1,300.

Method. FDIC Summary of Deposits, June each year, grouped by ultimate regulatory owner. The region is St. Joseph, Elkhart, and Marshall counties (IN) and Berrien and Cass (MI).
001August 18, 2026

How has ownership of our banks changed?

At its peak 50 years ago, our region had 47 banks and thrifts headquartered here. Today, four remain. And 59¢ of every dollar on deposit now sits with an institution run from somewhere else.

Method. FDIC institution records and Summary of Deposits, June each year, for St. Joseph, Elkhart, and Marshall counties (IN) and Berrien and Cass (MI). Federal records begin in 1934.